I'm no climate change sceptic, having lived and farmed in the southern hemisphere and had to live with the vageries of El Nino and La Nina cycles, to my way of thinking what we are experiencing at the moment falls into this 5-7 year cycle. Last time we had dry weather was back in 2005, previous to that was 1995 that stands out. I remember that really bad drought we had in Zimbabwe back in the early 90's when it was so dry in the south that farmers were cutting thorn bush, then spraying it with a product called 'Brouse Plus', something that made the toxic tannins less toxic enough to stock that they didn't die from eating it, but gave them enough sustenance to stay alive and not die of starvation.
Now I have been following the long range forecasts from Positive Weather Solutions on the right sidebar of my blog for a while now, they called the cold winter last year and the year before that, they also predicted the wet autumn and summer previously too. So when they issued a warning back in December that this was likely to be a dry spring I looked at what Bryce Anderson at DTN was saying too. Sure enough, he had picked up on the Southern Oscilation Index being at it's highest level for a very long time, greater even than that in 1976. I made a posting about this at the time, sceptically thinking it could go either way at the time. Well, speaking to farmers locally in Devon lately, the common thread is that this has been the driest start they can remember, more so than 1976 where at least it was wet early so that 1st cut silage was a big one. This time, grass is wilting even before it's cut, with the effect that grass isn't really bulking up any more, hence farmers are flat out cutting and trying to harvest what is there before quality deteriorates further and praying that what nitrogen was applied has at least been utilised and is not going to end up in the clamps.
I know a lot of stock was turned out really early this year, not because the ground conditions were good, rather because there wasn't enough forage in the clamps to continue with full winter rations. I am now seeing stock that should have been out of fields, back in because they are running short on grazing elsewhere, with the knock on effect that 1st cut silage ground has been reduced. Farmers who are on summer grazing contracts and were hoping to have plenty of grass by 1st April after the sheep had been pulled out from winter keep are struggling to keep these grazing paddocks going due to the lack of grass growth from lack of rain.
It's interesting to see that those individuals who have been keeping half an eye on the weather conditions and have not held back on getting spring crops planted early are seeing the benefits of those decisions with these crops looking in good condition and with root systems able to manage the dry conditions. Those who have been following the calendar are now chasing ever diminshing levels of moisture in seedbeds that are drying out faster than normal with the current sunshine and cool dry easterly winds. I don't think I can recall hearing so many farmers praying for rain in what we southern hemisphere types would refer to as 'mud island'.
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| Very dry and dusty conditions at North Tawton on 26th April, drilling maize trial. (hopefully it will rain enough to get going!) |
The thing is, if you think UK has it bad, check the DTN report below, large parts of the southern US is looking at crop losses due to drought, whilst the northern states and Canada are way behind because it is too wet to cultivate. Then there crop losses in China and other parts that are going to play a part on total output this year. Hardly surprising then too see the wheat price for November 2012 rising to £158/ton. So forward selling, forward buying may be prudent, especially if you're a stock farmer wanting to fix some of your feed costs for next year, now.
So have a read of what Bryce is saying, makes for a sobering picture.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/weather
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