Weather worries!

Now I know a lot of media publications are printing stuff about how the climate is changing, that man made C02 is the cause of all the weird weather we have been experiencing lately.

I'm no climate change sceptic, having lived and farmed in the southern hemisphere and had to live with the vageries of El Nino and La Nina cycles, to my way of thinking what we are experiencing at the moment falls into this 5-7 year cycle. Last time we had dry weather was back in 2005, previous to that was 1995 that stands out. I remember that really bad drought we had in Zimbabwe back in the early 90's when it was so dry in the south that farmers were cutting thorn bush, then spraying it with a product called 'Brouse Plus', something that made the toxic tannins less toxic enough to stock  that they didn't die from eating it, but gave them enough sustenance to stay alive and not die of starvation.

Now I have been following the long range forecasts from Positive Weather Solutions on the right sidebar of my blog for a while now, they called the cold winter last year and the year before that, they also predicted the wet autumn and summer previously too. So when they issued a warning back in December that this was likely to be a dry spring I looked at what Bryce Anderson at DTN was saying too. Sure enough, he had picked up on the Southern Oscilation Index being at it's highest level for a very long time, greater even than that in 1976. I made a posting about this at the time, sceptically thinking it could go either way at the time. Well, speaking to farmers locally in Devon lately, the common thread is that this has been the driest start  they can remember, more so than 1976 where at least it was wet early so that 1st cut silage was a big one. This time, grass is wilting even before it's cut, with the effect that grass isn't really bulking up any more, hence farmers are flat out cutting and trying to harvest what is there before quality deteriorates further and praying that what nitrogen was applied has at least been utilised and is not going to end up in the clamps.

I know a lot of stock was turned out really early this year, not because the ground conditions were good, rather because there wasn't enough forage in the clamps to continue with full winter rations. I am now seeing stock that should have been out of fields, back in because they are running short on grazing elsewhere, with the knock on effect that 1st cut silage ground has been reduced. Farmers who are on summer grazing contracts and were hoping to have plenty of grass by 1st April after the sheep had been pulled out from winter keep are struggling to keep these grazing paddocks going due to the lack of grass growth from lack of rain.

It's interesting to see that those individuals who have been keeping half an eye on the weather conditions and have not held back on getting spring crops planted early are seeing the benefits of those decisions with these crops looking in good condition and with root systems able to manage the dry conditions. Those who have been following the calendar are now chasing ever diminshing levels of moisture in seedbeds that are drying out faster than normal with the current sunshine and cool dry easterly winds. I don't think I can recall hearing so many farmers  praying for rain in what we southern hemisphere types  would refer to as 'mud island'.

Very dry and dusty conditions at North Tawton on 26th April, drilling  maize trial. (hopefully it will rain enough to get going!)

The thing is, if you think UK has it bad, check the DTN report below, large parts of the southern US is looking at crop losses due to drought, whilst the northern states and Canada are way behind because it is too wet to cultivate. Then there crop losses in China and other parts that are going to play a part on total output this year. Hardly surprising then too see the wheat price for November 2012 rising to £158/ton. So forward selling, forward buying may be prudent, especially if you're a stock farmer wanting to fix some of your feed costs for next year, now.

So have a read of what Bryce is saying, makes for a sobering picture.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/weather

Grass and the seeds of success.

Nickerson Circle leys have been around now for 57 years, as a brand they have always been surnonomous with market leading quality, durability and high yield, something that is not easy to achieve all three with. I find it immensley satisfying to meet farmers who have got Nickerson leys that are still highly productive, even though they are 20 years old, or in some cases nearer 30 years old. Obviously they were put together right!

As a seeds specialist, it is pleasing to see recently established pastures like these below starting to deliver the promises made, I have yet to come across a pasture that hasn't done what it's stated to do. In all the years that Nickerson Circle leys have been going, there has only ever been two indiviuals that have done the mixture formulations, Simon Broddle is the current man and has been doing it for the past 15 years or so having progressed from the research side of grass breeding and mixture formulations. He is involved with all the midlands dairy discussion groups, part of the leading benchmarking farms and has had a healthy hand in one farmer winning the Dairy Gold Cup not just once, but twice! I don't think there is any other seedhouse in the UK that can stake such a claim. It is therefore reassuring to know that everytime a customer sows a bag of Circle grass seed, there is a lot of science that has gone into producing it. The fact that the mixtures are trialled on farms with recorded daily milk yields on grazed grass where the differences in palatability, energy, regrowth etc can produce differences over 2 litres of milk/cow/day means that only the best tested mixes end up in the bags.

 Then there is the fact that Nickerson Circle leys are the only grass seeds that are treated with with Thiram and PGA (a P&K polymer seed film coating) both which combine to give a plant whose rootmass is double that of conventional grass seed at 6 weeks of age, the most critical stage in any grass ley establishment. This one of the reasons why these swards are so thick.

Silver Circle, a really high yielding mid-term ley suitable for cutting and grazing.

Silver Circle with a rich clover base.

Pro-Plus, a short term, very high quality grass mix with both red and white clover.

Pro-Plus overlooking the Tamar near Plymouth.

These photo's were taken on Monday this week, 18th April having been heavily grazed all winter by both beef and sheep, with the animals withdrawn at the end of February. Given the winter and start to the year we have had, this is pretty impressive regrowth! So anyone who is short of grass and looking for forage, this grass is for sale!

There is a link on the right sidebar of the page to the Circle Ley page showing the full range of mixes available.