Weather outlook for 2011...????

Sometimes the past holds clues to the future, the weather patterns ebb and flow and generally do follow a cycle. Currently we are coming off the back of one of the coldest,harshest and driest winters for many a year. When I was farming in Zimbabwe, the El Nino/La Nina effect was fairly well known and we tried to plan accordingly where we were within the 5-7 year cycle. It is interesting note that warm wet southern hemisphere years correspond with hot dry northern hemisphere years during these cycles. So here are some stats from '75/'76 to jog the memory and for those that cannot remember, or weren't around then, bring you up to speed on what transpired.

1975/1976 (two-year drought):


1. The famous DROUGHT of 1975/76 was memorable for its severity over most of the British Isles, and also for its exceptional persistence. It produced the highest values for a drought index for south-east England in three hundred years. Not since 1749/50 had a period from one summer to the following spring been so dry in southern Britain. At Oxford, every month from May 1975 to August 1976 had below average rainfall with the sole exception of September 1975. It was the DRIEST 16-month period on record for England and Wales. The severity of the drought was highlighted by the acute hydrological impact of an exceptionally dry winter being sandwiched between two hot, dry summers. The drought was most severe in south-eastern England but was felt widely across England and Wales, and the most stringent water supply restrictions were experienced in South Wales, where water was cut off for up to 17 hours a day to domestic consumers. North-west England and much of western Scotland escaped the attentions of this notable drought and were more frequently subject to the passage of fronts associated with cyclonic systems displaced northwards by the high pressure over southern England.

1976 (January):

1. The GALE late on the 2nd (into the 3rd) in 1976 was one of the most severe to affect the British Isles in the twentieth century. Wittering (Cambridgeshire) in the east of England recorded a GUST of 91 knots at 2218 GMT on the 2nd and many stations across the NE of England, East Anglia and the Midlands experienced GUSTS in excess of 70 knots, with mean winds (hourly) 45 knots or more. Strong Gale or storm force was often reached with HURRICANE force 12 reported from some places in South Wales, southwest and northern England. Widespread damage and deaths (23 deaths noted at the time). A caravan site near Doncaster was destroyed. Some FLOODING on the North Sea coast: 4 feet (circa 1.2 m) of flood water in Mablethorpe and Sutton-on-Sea (Lincolnshire). DAMAGE was noted in almost every county of England, Wales & Northern Ireland. There were prolonged power cuts in widely separated areas. Railway services were badly affected in the Midlands because of the collapse of overhead power supplies. At Southend airport, a light aircraft was bodily lifted from the tarmac and thrown onto an adjacent railway line, where it burst into flames and blocked the railway services into London. [HS/23]

1976 (Spring):

1. Less than 50% of normal RAINFALL in the south-east of England during spring: contributing to the ensuing problems during the SUMMER DROUGHT.

1976 (June/July):

1. No previous HEAT WAVE in Britain, nor any since, has ever come close to the duration of the late June/early July 1976 HOT SPELL. From the 22nd June to 16th July, the temperature reached 80 degF daily. Even more remarkable, from 23rd June to 7th July, a period of 15 consecutive days, the temperature exceeded 32 degC somewhere or other in the country.

1976 (May75 - Apr76):

1. For England and Wales, the 12 month period May 1975 to April 1976 was the DRIEST 12 month period since the series began (?EWR) in 1727.

1976 (Summer):

1. It was easily the DRIEST, SUNNIEST and WARMEST summer (June/July/August) in the 20th century (at this date, but see 1995 - which is now regarded as the driest). Only a few places registered more than half their average summer rainfall. In the CET record, it was the WARMEST summer in that series.

2. It was the WARMEST summer in the Aberdeen area since at least 1864.

3. It was the DRIEST summer since 1868 in Glasgow.

4. Probably the HOTTEST summer for over three centuries. CET values were (with anomalies rel. to 1961-90 averages): Jun:17.0(+2.8), Jul:18.7(+2.6), Aug: 17.6(+1.8). In particular, for the period mid-June to mid-July, 1976, this was one (of two, the other being in 1826), WARMEST 30-day periods in the CET series, with a value of 19.7degC.

1976 (September+October):

1. For England and Wales as a whole (EWR), it was the WETTEST such spell in the entire record ... back to 1727. The combined EWP value for September & October=305mm. (Since 1727, the rainfall of September 1976 is 10th wettest in the series.) [ The wettest September + October totals since 1727 were during 1903 (310mm), 1841 (295mm) and 1960 (290mm), therefore the total for 1976 (September+ October) at 305mm is close to a record. ]

1976 (Autumn):

1. A notably VERY WET autumn for all areas ( except for north and west Scotland.) In some parts of northern England, and the extreme south, 200% of average rainfall was recorded. [ Coming after the notably dry spring/summer of course ] Information taken from here: http://alturl.com/x7kf9

Now let's look at the current situation, courtesy of Bryce Anderson from DTN/The Progressive Farmer website, the link to which is on the right hand side bar of my page.

The development of that northern high pressure block is still to be determined; however, La Nina is definitely around and, in fact has reached some historic levels. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology announced recently that its records of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)--the barometric pressure component of El Nino/La Nina which tracks the comparison between Tahiti and Darwin--had an average value of +21.1 between August and December 2010. That average is the second-highest Aug-Dec value on record--second only to the La Nina of 1917-18, which had a value of +24.4. But--more to the point in terms of crop concerns--the current La Nina moved past the La Nina of 1975-76, which had a reading from August through December of +18.8.


Now, here's where it gets interesting if you're looking for comparisons. I checked with our contributing analyst Joel Karlin of Western Milling for some corn yields for 1976--and found out--as I thought--that '76 was a real have and have-not year in the Corn Belt.
Here are the numbers. The U.S. national yield declined by 4.2 percent. And in some selected states, Joel sent these yield figures: Eastern Corn Belt states were above trendline for the year, with Illinois +2.1 pct; Indiana +10.4 pct; Ohio +7.6 pct; and Kentucky +23.3 pct.



But, the Western Corn Belt had a much different story: Iowa's yield was down by 11.4 pct; Nebraska down 10.6 pct; and Missouri down 22.3 pct. I don't have yield information for other states west of the Mississippi, but after talking with producers in Sioux Falls about the 1976 season I have no doubt that such declines in yield were similar or even greater.



Now, 1976 was an entire generation ago, and corn production is far, far more advanced. This account is also a look at just one of many parts in the production scenario. Still--the strength of this La Nina bolsters ideas that its influence will be around through at least the first half of the 2011 season--and we will not discount its presence as we approach the end of winter.

So where does that leave us here in the south west? Well, I am not counting my chickens, however my advice is get all land prep done earlier, consolidate moisture in seedbeds and plant early, don't wait for a calender date. Don't ladel nitrogen on, as this will encourage rank vegetative growth which will exaccerbate moisture stress, conserve every blade of grass you can if a livestock farmer and hope like hell we have rain at critical growth stages to see crops through.

Positive Weather Solutions are currently saying it will be a drier, earlier spring too so lets pray that September and October don't produce swamp conditions and make establishing next years(2012) crop hard work. Here is their current outlook. Take note, given they got last year pretty much right, as well as forecast a very cold winter last year and the year before..... http://alturl.com/cwmce

Frost heave in new grass leys 2011

This ley was sown late September, not overly late for North Devon in normal years, but given the very cold conditions in December with the very rapid thaw in January, the result is this above. Where the grass has died, the soil is very plumby, soft, almost like a sponge, whilst where it is thriving, the soil is firm and well consolidated holding the roots firm. Just shows the differences in soils and how spending the time really consolidating the seedbed is vital in grass establishment.

Frost damage/heave in Winter Wheat.

With the price of wheat futures rising well over £200/ton and the November price at over £170, things in he arable world are looking quite promising for this season. However, the recent very cold weather has played havoc with some wheat plantings here in North Devon, especially the poorer, wetter lands. With temperatures plunging down to -18C in places near Okehampton in the week before Christmas (I saw -13C at Exeter airport on Christmas eve), things got pretty chilly down here for a while, especially as the daytime temperatures struggled to get above -5C.

This prolonged cold spell for the whole month of December, followed by a very rapid thaw just before New Year has left us with some scenes like this below. There is hope yet that the damage can be salvaged later when Growth regulator is applied with a additional foliar feed of Multimax to boost additional root development and allow some plants to survive. A very cold dry spring won't help though if we have similar weather to last spring.

Fortunately I haven't come across any of my customers with total, or near complete loss of autumn seeds. Nickerson Original seed does come with a filmcoat package that both protects the seed from phytotoxic effects of seed dressings, as well as stimulates root and root hair development in the first 6 weeks of growth, something which is key in getting good autumn establishment. Yes it costs a couple of pounds an acre more, but with a winter like this last one, it certainly is going to pay off.

My seed in the foreground, the 2 fields on the bank directly behind aren't and have 50-90% losses. This below is a neighbours field of grass seeds...... Not Circle Leys, which would have come through OK given they have the same film coat.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 12: Roast Canada Goose!

Please do not read if :-

1) You do not have a sense of humour

2) Think all wild animals wear country gent costumes and talk to each other when we ‘humans’ aren’t watching

3) Are a vegetarian person

You may find it offensive.

Ok so it’s Christmas and a credit crunch one at that. The last of my 12 blog entries for an alternative Christmas Fayre,  I give you an idea how you can control the vermin on your land and cook up a tasty dish… for free!! Please enjoy, share your own recipes of your ‘Farmers Foe Fayre’. Feel free to send in pictures of your finished dishes.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 11:


Canada Goose:

Because of their inefficient digestive system and the low nutrient value of plant material, Canada geese need to eat large quantities of vegetation. When grazing they may produce droppings at a rate of one every six minutes. The droppings contain bacteria that may be harmful if faecal matter is inadvertently swallowed and they also make grassed areas unattractive and paths slippery.

Unsightly and unhygienic areas of mud and droppings which are expensive to re-seed frequently occur. The geese may trample as well as graze pasture and crops.

If the droppings are passed into water bodies they may cause increased nutrient loadings leading to possible toxic algal blooms and low oxygen levels in the water.

The large size of Canada geese makes a collision with an aircraft a particularly hazardous event. Although no fatal incidents have occurred in the United Kingdom, serious collisions have occurred elsewhere. (all the above info courtesy of DEFRA TIN: control of Canadian Geese!)

So for the hungry, here we have;

Roast Canada Goose:

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No11:

Please do not read if :-


1) You do not have a sense of humour

2) Think all wild animals wear country gent costumes and talk to each other when we ‘humans’ aren’t watching

3) Are a vegetarian person

You may find it offensive.

Ok so it’s Christmas and a credit crunch one at that. In the next 12 blog entries, in fact each day leading up to Christmas I will give you an idea how you, the humble farmer, can control the vermin on your land and cook up a tasty dish… for free!! Please enjoy, share your own recipes of your ‘Farmers Foe Fayre’. Feel free to send in pictures of your finished dishes.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 11:


Grey Squirrel:

An introduced pest, Grey squirrels have survived repeated Government-sanctioned attempts at extermination by shooting, trapping and poisoning. Greys do considerable damage to trees when present in large numbers. They attack trees in early summer gnawing at the main stem, seeking the sweet, sappy layers immediately beneath the bark. Sometimes the tree is completely ringed and as a consequence will die. If it doesn't die then it will usually be checked or spoilt. This is especially relevant to farmers as custodians of the countryside who are doing their bit to revive replenish and replant woodlands.

It is now illegal to import a grey squirrel or keep one as a pet. They will adapt to any area covered by trees, whether broad leaved or conifer, with an average density of about 5 per acre. Greys will live in suburban parks and gardens, becoming tame enough to feed from the hand.

Roast Squirrels courtesy of Matthew Parris of The Times.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre N0 10: Mexican Mole. Ole!

Please do not read if :-

1) You do not have a sense of humour

2) Think all wild animals wear country gent costumes and talk to each other when we ‘humans’ aren’t watching

3) Are a vegetarian person

You may find it offensive.

Ok so it’s Christmas and a credit crunch one at that. In the next 12 blog entries, in fact each day leading up to Christmas I will give you an idea how you can control the vermin on your land and cook up a tasty dish… for free!! Please enjoy, share your own recipes of your ‘Farmers Foe Fayre’. Feel free to send in pictures of your finished dishes.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 10:


Mole:

Another little rodent that is the scourge of newly planted grass leys and cereal fields. Gardeners love these little critters too, Not! This recipe is guaranteed to blow you away!

Mexican Mole with four chillies. A bit complicated, but tasty.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 9: Starling Stew with Olives.

Please do not read if :-


1) You do not have a sense of humour
2) Think all wild animals wear country gent costumes and talk to each other when we ‘humans’ aren’t watching
3) Are a vegetarian person

You may find it offensive.

Ok so it’s Christmas and a credit crunch one at that. In the next 12 blog entries, in fact each day leading up to Christmas I will give you an idea how you can control the vermin on your land and cook up a tasty dish… for free!! Please enjoy, share your own recipes of your ‘Farmers Foe Fayre’. Feel free to send in pictures of your finished dishes.

Farmers Foe Christmas Fayre No 9:


European Starlings:

Admired by many ‘twitters’ for their amazing dusk displays where thousands combine to produce aerial ballets, for the stock farmer these flying rats are a nightmare! Imagine 6000 birds in a feed passage, yard, eating and defecating in, on top of and around feed troughs. Gates and machinery, rooves, all coated by a thick layer of excrement. Fortunately they are only here in the winter, but make life for farmers affected a nightmare at this time. Most would dearly see them eradicated from their farms especially as they carry E.Coli and other bacteria that can cause ‘Starling flu’ in affected herds. For a graphic representation of this problem, look at this video I made recently! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSrwKw7scpM

Here’s a tasty recipe for those wanting to help reduce the problem, whilst not wasting a worth source of food. Remember my philosophy is waste not want not.....

A recipe from Calvin Schwabe's "Unmentionable Cuisine" , Starling Stew with Olives.