Wheat varieties in a bearish market......Choices for 2014/15 season.

With winter barley yields proving to be consistent and high this season, questions about the cost of wheat production this season are rearing themselves daily. With on farm prices off the combine being touted at less than £120/ton, some serious head scratching is taking place in the south west as to what to plant this coming season.

What has been noticeable this season is the wet weather. Right from the outset, October through to May was wet and very mild, record storm surges, high winds, day after day with only a few days respite between storms to get the late planted crops in (after maize, potatoes). The early drilled fields got a flying start and where possible had to have a few sprays of insecticide to keep the aphids off. Seed dressed with Deter had enough protection early on, but this soon faded with the weather onslaught.

With wet mild weather, early ingress of disease was inevitable with Septoria levels in the early new year being high, along with a lot of yellow rust in susceptible varieties. With the ground being so wet and soils relatively warm, plants continued to produce biomass, but not much root as the soils were waterlogged. This continued all the way up till May when the rain abated and temperatures climbed. This was ideal conditions for maize establishment, but some wheats with small root systems started to show signs of strain.

The very mild and wet winter has had another significant effect on winter barley and wheat, namely Take-All. In Lattitude seed treated crops, drilled in early October, there still has been crop damage, that drilled in late September is worse, particularly in fields that weren't rolled post drilling. I have seen Take-All effects in winter barley as bad as in wheat, even barley drilled late October down in Cornwall. In some wheat crops that were drilled as second wheats early (late September) through into the middle of October, it is possible to see which are the early drilled and those that went in last, purely by the degree of Take-All infection in the fields. In other instances, over-yeared seed from 2012 that only had single purpose dressing, was planted in fields following spring barley, purely due to the results of cropping rotation mayhem in 2012, with disastrous results being seen now. I have seen instances of Take-All symptoms in winter barley following winter oats following wheat too, some a complete right-off.

This year, the two cereal demonstration sites were drilled at quite different times, the site at Bude went in early, 25th September, into ideal seedbed conditions. Some varieties have two plots looking at over-yeared seed, a product of the very wet autumn of 2012 when a lot of seed never got planted. Given the issues of 2012, it is hardly surprising that farmers were keen to get the winter crops in early in 2013 to avoid the same issues again. The Tregony site however was opposite, originally planned to go in October, weeks went by with conditions hopeless, until a little window opened the last week of November that allowed the plots to be sown 2nd December. The mild weather definitely helped this lot survive, although some varieties were really up against it and those plots looked appallingly thin. This field was sprayed with Multimax at the earliest opportunity (phosphite and potash foliar feed) to stimulate root and shoot development, which had the desired effect and thickened the plots up well.

Tregony demonstration site mid July.

Bude demonstration site 23rd May with untreated area showing yellow rust in susceptible varieties.

Winter Barley plots at Tregony, Matros in foreground, then Harlequin, Cadillac, California. Matros in rest of field. This field followed winter wheat and suffered some Take-All effects.

In the previous years (2012 and 2013) Avatar winter wheat has been the top yielding variety at both sites, in early and late drilling slots, wet year and dry year. A son of Istabraq and the top perfuming variety in Ireland and Scotland, it has proved itself as a big yielder in this maritime climate of the south west. A variety that was half a percentage point off going on the HGCA recommended list in 2012, it is a very reliable and farmer friendly variety. In trials at Exeter going back to 2008, it has always been in the top 5 in terms of outright performance and across a wide range of sites in the HGCA trials system it performed well. It was the variety that caught my eye back in 2009 at Exeter, I started including it in farm trials in 2010 and it has proven a very consistent and forgiving variety. planted early, it doesn't get too proud and full of disease like Istabraq can (thats why its always advised to plant Istabraq late down here, possibly the best wheat variety after maize), planted late (end of February, it has amazing tillering capacity and a fantastic yield potential. I have a case of it being planted the 19th of March this year and it has flowered and produced a great crop. That is nearly as forgiving as Claire! Due to it's high tillering capacity, it lends itself to the Claydon system of minimum tillage, as can be seen below.

Avatar drilled in November with a Claydon drill, near Crediton.

Avatar in a field thats been continuous wheat for 30 years, looking fabulous. Drilled at 230 seeds/sqm in late mid September 2013.

Avatar produces a good bright sample with a high specific weight.

Since starting this we have now harvested about 400acs of wheats, predominantly Istabraq and Avatar. Yields for Istabraq are in the 3.75t/ac range with a good specific weight, with Avatar in second wheat/continuos wheat slots doing the same and between 3.8 and 4.25t/ac in the 1st wheat slots, again with very good specific weights. There are are a few results that I am waiting on from the Crediton and Truro areas, but at the minute yields are promising for a difficult year.

I am hoping we will have the trial plots harvested in the near future which will then give us an indication of where the new varieties like Zulu, Panacea, Evolution and Revelation sit in the mix. Revelation does look promising at the minute, Panacea may surprise with its yield too.

More to follow soon.

Playing Russian Roulette

For a fortunate few, Harvest 2012 is drawing to a protracted and very difficult close, certainly this is a year that we aren't going to forget in a hurry!

It has been a revelation this year, a 'shake out' year as one of our breeders described it, as some serious issues that potentially threaten wheat breeding program's are starting to emerge with some very serious consequences for UK farming.

In the past some breeding program's have focused on genetic resistance to regular disease pressures, septoria tritici being the main one, with other traits being bolted on. Some other breeders have been focusing on all out yield, regardless of how genetically strong these varieties were, their consensus being that disease risk could be managed by chemistry tailored to curb disease outbreaks. Barn filling varieties with poor to average disease traits proliferated as farmers bought into the idea that chemistry could solve all disease problems. As with anything in nature, disease pressures and mutations give rise to new challenges. Single gene resistance to disease instead of dual, or multiple gene resistance is easier to breed into new varieties and allows quick turn around from lab to field. As a consequence we are now seeing multiple incidences of varieties succumbing  to Yellow Rust and Brown Rust strains that are evolving, varieties that have only just been registered on the HGCA recommended lists, with the resultant increase in usage of full blown ag-chem programs to try and control these issues.

Throw into this mix one of the wettest growing seasons, especially from pre flowering all the way to harvest with low solar energy levels, high humidity and very damp soil conditions and you have a perfect storm scenario for a whole host of new diseases to make their presence felt too, especially Fusarium which has quite literally sucked all yield out of wheats this year, apart from those like Istabraq that has not suffered as much and is still producing a reasonable sample.

A common theme I am hearing on farm is a new level of questioning with regard to ag-chem inputs, how expensive this last season has been to get a crop that basically isn't near covering costs. It's is interesting to note how some of these chemistry suppliers have gone from small scale operations to giants in the industry in a very short period of time, considering how long the 'green revolution' in agriculture has been going on for. In a very short time span, farmers have seen their supply base of agricultural chemicals diminish considerably down to just a handful of players in the market, with the agronomy angle reduced even further and geared almost exclusively to structured spray programs. In a wet year like this last one, total reliance on sprays to control disease has been severely tested and the basic fundamentals of genetic resistance and a variety's ability to cope under stress have been fully on display. Some have coped and a lot have not.

Soil science, I would say is one of the most important factors governing yield, has been largely forgotten, farmers have devolved responsibility in many areas to their ag-chem supplier and crop walkers who supposedly are more knowledgeable in maximising yields and thus returns on their behalf. The knowledge gap on farm has been further diminished as a result of squeezed margins in the 'naughties' that lead to farmers farming more acres with less personnel and thus being more time restricted to chase knowledge in this regard. Universities and Agricultural Colleges too reduced the soil science input and concentrated more on the chemistry and machinery aspects of tillage, horsepower and technology as soil science generally was considered boring by most students. How many modern day farmers really understand and know what is going on in their soils?

A common theme I hear on farm is this; "why is it that with all your new fancy varieties you are breeding I am still only getting the yields we were getting 10 years ago"? Well, this time I heard an answer that came from a soil specialist company that has been growing a database on soils across the UK for the last 10 plus years and what he said was scary. The basis of it is this, pure arable farmers have been depleting the soil organic matter for so long with simple cereal and rape rotations that in some areas these levels are so low as to be irreplaceable, the soils have had all the life sucked out of them and as a result they physically are unable to provide the growing crops with the nutrients to attain their genetic potential.

It really has been noticeable in fields this year, those with good organic matter, good structure, good nutrient status have still delivered a reasonable yield and machinery has still been able to travel at critical times without leaving 3ft deep ruts. A farmer I know in Wiltshire has been chopping his straw for 10 years now, been applying copious amounts of compost and maintaining his lime and nutrient status with almost religious zeal. On very heavy clay over chalk, he has managed to keep going during harvest when his neighbours were getting stuck, his fields have a natural 'sponginess' to them as you walk them with very few areas of standing water in any of them, whilst neighbours have had 6" across whole fields of standing water for long periods of time. When you look where the combine has been traveling, there are no deep ruts, look over the hedge and it looks like a battlefield.

The genetic potential of some of the older wheat varieties like Einstein is well in excess of 25t/ha, we know from data attained in New Zealand these varieties are currently doing 18t/ha on farm in places consistently where the fertility of the soils has been maintained and the soils well managed in terms of rotation, organic manure levels, trace element replacement and most importantly, soil structure. These farmers have good rotations with break crops designed to replace organic matter and recharge the soil nutrient levels, instead of relying on stuff out of a bag. UK farmers in the main have not been doing this and yield increases have largely flatlined.

We need a radicle rethink in how we manage crop rotations, increase soil organic matter levels, improve soil structure and rejuvinate trace element levels. We need to sometimes stop and think; the soils we are farming are the product of millions of years in the making, yet with our modern cropping methods we are depleting their ability to produce the very food that our growing populations will need in the future.

How are the future generations of young farmers going to produce a decent crop that provides an economic return if the very medium needed to grow it is barren? Those who think GM will gallantly ride to the rescue are sadly going to be disappointed because the focus in GM at present is geared towards mainly chemistry, rather than soils.

The last 5 years have in the main been benign to cereal varieties, yes there has been pressure from disease, but the weaker ones were still able to deliver a credible yield with a lot of ag-chem help. This year we hit chamber six and it has blown a huge hole in many a bottom line  Lets hope this year the HGCA clamps down on low disease threshold varieties whose presence on the list now is very questionable and we move away from 'spray and weigh' varieties.

Cornish Wheat Demo 2011 results.

Here are the results for the demo plots down near Tregony. It cannot be described as a scientifically statistically replicated trial, however it's pretty representative of this seasons results seen elsewhere on farms. Its is interesting that when we had open evenings the three varieties that looked promising in the plots also yielded very well, with Invicta tops, Einstein next followed by Claire. We all forget about Claire these days with all the newer varieties being released and coming to the fore, but Claire still just does it year after year, I know of someone in Wiltshire whose average yield of Claire this year was well over 5ton/ac!

Cornish Wheat Demonstration Results 2011
Variety	Grain yield Kgs	Tons/ha	Moisture%	Specific Weight	Relative Yield
Xi 19	575	11.83	16	73.8	103
Exsept	555	11.42	16.4	75.2	99
Einstein	590	12.14	16	75.2	105
Panorama	575	11.83	16	75	103
Claire	580	11.93	16.4	75.6	104
Invicta	615	12.65	16.5	73.2	110
Alchemy	555	11.42	16.4	76.2	99
Edmunds	565	11.63	16.4	73.4	101
Istabraq	560	11.52	16.2	75.8	100
Cassius	510	10.49	16	74.5	91
Gravitas	565	11.63	16.2	74.8	101
Sahara	530	10.91	16.4	74	95
Stigg	565	11.63	15.8	74.4	101
JB Diego	575	11.83	16.3	74.2	103
Robigus	555	11.42	16.4	74.3	99
Deben	505	10.39	15.7	72.8	90
Oakley	545	11.21	16.2	70.2	97
Duxford	555	11.42	16.2	74.8	99
Total			10075
Average			560

These plots all have very similar levels of moisture content, I have not put the results down at exactly the same moisture contents, rather left them as found to show the differences. If anyone disagrees with my methodology, let me know. So Invicta is the one that looked good all the way through and has come out tops. Sahara looked thin, if you look at earlier videos, it did look weaker all the way through, likewise Cassius which was hit very badly by Septoria, losing virtually all it's leaf area fairly early on. Oakley was hit very badly by Yellow Rust. Xi19 has been surprising, I really was not expecting it to do as well as it did, whilst for all the percieved wisdom and previous experience Stigg has turned in a good performance with a specific weight better than JB Diego.

So, all in all, an interesting experience, the 2011/12 plots have now been drilled with a whole lot of new varieties in them as well as the older established ones and I look forward to seeing how the new ones stack up down here in the far Southwest.

Wheat......Update on Demo plots.

The Cereals Event has been and gone, lots of flashy paint, plant and toys to entice anyone to part with a serious load of wedge/notes (depending from which side you come from). Lots of fancy stuff in the agchem arena and equally large and expensive machinery to apply it with. It seems every year the prices of these tools become ever more stratopheric, if inflation is supposed to be in the very low single digits, then you need a stiff drink and a new set of glasses to fathom the price increases in four wheeled machinery!

There has been a lot of comment in the farming press lately about wheat variety selections for the 2012 season, with emphasis as always being placed on the new upcoming varieties that have made the recommended list(RL). I personally have some misgivings about the way the list is put together, because I think that it doesn't always reflect what is actually happening with varieties in different regions, indeed soil types, even though there are North, South, East and West specifics. How does a wheat perform say on heavy wet land in Devon (when the land the RL trials are conducted on is light free draining reds near Exeter).  Likewise, ground in Dorset differs markedly from that in Kent, yet both count as South.

The RL trials are littered with the corpses of varieties that supposedly never made it onto the list because they failed, or were inconsistent over a multitude of sites. A classic example of this is a Nickerson bred variety called Lear, a variety way ahead in yield when it came out, Orange Blossom Midge resistance, superior septoria and rust resistance, fantastic grain quality and a good amount of straw, everything you could want in a western wheat. It didn't make the list because apparently it had weak straw. Well, tell that to the farmers who are growing it and getting exceptional yields from it! I remember Bill our wheat breeder reflecting that he should have fought harder to get it approved as it was a very good variety, however because of the process, not all candidates make it, so they were sanguine about it at the time, but regret it now. Commercial seed stocks are very limited as very few grow it. Likewise Deben now, supposedly outclassed by the newer varieties on the RL. Last but not least, Istabraq, dropped from the RL trials program now, considered an 'old' variety, but in last years trials at Exeter was joint top yielder at 118% with the highest specific weight. Go to Scotland, like I just have this week and you will see Istabraq outperforming the newer wheats hands down in the field, still the best distilling variety out there. Then there's Alchemy, still at 112% at Exeter last year, 4th highest yielder ahead of a lot of newer RL stuff, but supposedly outclassed by these same varieties on the printed RL books. To me, consistency of yield is more important than one years performance and knowing the genetic parentage of a variety is a vital clue to this consistency.

So this begs the question, why are we seeing a 3% yield increase roughly year on year in the RL system, but this is not being translated to farm level. Last year, someone I know in Wiltshire averaged 11.2t/ha (sold!)over 350Ha growing Solstice, Claire and Duxford(2nd wheat slot). You don't have to be a mathematician to appreciate the profitability of growing high yielding milling and feed wheats when wheat is trading at nearly £200/ton. Claire is 12 years plus old, yet it is still more than capable of producing good yields, even in difficult places like North Devon, so why are there people out there slating it and saying it's getting old and falling behind newer varieties? Is the process of selection producing varieties of high potential yield, but with poor to mediocre specific weights and hagbergs, which will sprout if you sneeze on them at harvest time? Are breeders, as a result of the RL system, being tempted to make quality sacrifices in genetic resistance to disease by releasing varieties with only single gene, rather than polygenic resistance factors, which then break down only a year or two after being released, or even whilst still in the trials stages? Is the drive by big chemical companies that are buying up small to medium scale cereal breeding companies limiting diversity of research? My fear is that this 'race' to release new varieties is leading us down a blind alley, where more and more genetic material is 'burnt' as varieties break down to rusts etc and resistant genes become fewer and fewer to the point that genetic modification becomes the only road available to maintain wheat production.

Is the new chemistry that is being applied to varieties negating yield performance in the field, are some of these tank mixes that are being put together actually depressing the plants abilities through phytotoxicity? How many farmers/agronomists are actually applying recommended rates and mixes as stipulated by manufacturers? Did you know that Nickerson tests a full range of different fungicide programs from different maufacturers over the course of a candidate variety going through the NL and RL processes, which once approved is freely available so growers can see which spray program produces the best result for that specific variety. I asked a very successful farmer this the other evening at one of my demonstration events, to which he replied no, never knew it, never seen them, his agronomist had never given him one. http://www.nickersondirect.co.uk/products/winter_wheat1.html  Check for yourself, the info is here and if it's not, then I sure can find it.

So, after all that, have a look at what these wheat varieties down near Tregony in Cornwall look like, some good, some not so good, lots to learn and observe, this has really been a 'shake-out' year for many wheat varieties and we aren't done yet! Have a look at the wheat near the end of the plots next to Duxford, This is Nickerson Original Deben treated with GPA. Looks better than a lot of the material in the plots, it will be very interesting to compare its yield to the ordinary Deben in the plots and the other varieties. Then there's Stigg, maybe not everyones cup of tea, but it does point the way we need to be looking for septoria resistance!

Cornish and North Devon wheat variety demonstration plots.

For the first time in many years, quite possible for the first time in Cornwall, I have put in two wheat variety demonstration plots to show farmers what these different varieties will do 'in their back yard' so to speak.

Nickersons has had a trial site just north of Exeter for many years, near Silverton, where a whole range of varieties from the recommended list(RL) are trialed to measure performance in the 'west'. This is all part of the recommended list certification process and the main site for septoria screening. It is also where all the new pre RL material is tested too, somewhere in the region of 300 new upcoming variety lines.The site features treated and non-treated trials to see what plants in-bred genetic resistance levels are to a range common fungal deseases.

There is normally an open day that is run by Masstock, with whom we share the site under the 'we do the land prep, plant it and harvest it, you spray it' arrangement. The site is on free draining,  fertile red soils that aren't really representative of the heavy clays and shales found in Cornwall and Devon south and west of Exeter, nor does it have the disease pressure from 60 inches of rain found elsewhere. After hearing the feedback from numerous farmers in Cornwall and North Devon about these non comparative issues, I have found two farmers who were prepared to undertake these demonstration plots.

The North Devon site is near Holsworthy, heavy wet clays, not the best ground in the parish, but representative of soils farmers are trying to grow wheat in and here is a short video of what they look like at the end of November.



The Cornish trial site is near Tregony, on the Roseland peninsular, not far from St Austell. There is a lot of wheat grown in Cornwall, mainly for stock feed, so this site is ideal to show local growers the strengths and weaknesses of these varieties. Both sites will have an untreated strip through them too so we can see what Septoria resistance there is, as well as demonstrating to those organic growers what they too can expect. This site has 5 more varieties than the other too which is an added bonus. There will be open days at both sites in the new year and a proper open day event as well at both just after the Cereals Event. Dates will be announced.